Windsor has long been Canada’s auto capital, built on decades of vehicle production, supplier networks and high-paying factory jobs. But that legacy faces an existential crisis, and the reality is hitting faster than most realize.
The Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian products shipped to the U.S.
That said, the latest news is the automotive industry will be spared from tariffs for one month.
But on the whole it seems Windsor, Ontario could be hit hard with the likelihood of plant shutdowns with manufacturers shifting plans to the U.S.
Before the tariffs, Stellantis had big plans for Windsor Assembly, including:
- Chrysler Pacifica – The last minivan standing, but in a shrinking segment.
- Dodge Charger Daytona EV – A niche electric muscle car already facing market uncertainty.
- Three-Row Dodge SUV – A next-generation Durango replacement aimed at mass-market buyers.
- Two-Row Chrysler Crossover – Chrysler’s first new model in years, meant to revitalize the brand.
Now, with a tariff in place let’s be realistic:
- The Dodge SUV and Chrysler Crossover could be move to U.S. production before they even launch. Detroit or Belvidere, Illinois, are the most logical destinations.
- The Dodge Charger Daytona EV is a gamble from the start, and the tariff makes it uncompetitive. Stellantis may quietly shelve the project or relocate it to a U.S. facility.
- The Chrysler Pacifica is a minivan, which aren’t high-volume sellers. A tariff of any kind will kill any competitive edge. Expect major cuts or relocation.
The reality? Windsor was promised a future as an EV and SUV production hub-but the math no longer works.
The Supplier Exodus Has Already Begun
The auto industry isn’t just about assembling cars; it’s about the entire supply chain. And that supply chain is now at risk.
Tier-One Suppliers – Direct suppliers to Stellantis, providing transmissions, interiors, suspension systems (e.g., Magna International, Linamar, Flex-N-Gate).
Tier-Two Suppliers – Provide parts to Tier-Ones, such as wiring harnesses, electronics, and moldings.
- They face the same tariff on exports.
- Ontario-based suppliers making transmissions or electronics for U.S. assembly plants now cost more than U.S. alternatives.
- Trump’s “America First” policies will lure them south.
- Tax breaks, grants, and subsidies will encourage suppliers to shift operations to U.S. states already expanding auto production.
- Belvidere, Illinois, and Detroit are primed for supplier shifts.
- Feeder plants naturally follow assembly plants. If Stellantis moves SUV production south, its suppliers will too.
- Mexico is also affected by tariffs, making U.S. consolidation inevitable.
- Many Canadian companies with operations in both Canada and Mexico will now merge production into the U.S., rather than maintaining facilities in two tariff-affected countries.
Simply put: If Stellantis pulls out, its suppliers won’t be far behind.
The Economic Fallout: Windsor’s Domino Effect
This isn’t just an auto industry problem…it’s a Windsor problem that becomes a Canada problem
- Factory Jobs Will Vanish. Stellantis employs thousands in Windsor, but supplier job losses could be even worse.
- Real Estate Will Take a Hit. The housing market relies on stable auto industry paychecks. If those jobs disappear, who’s left to buy?
- Small Businesses Will Suffer. Restaurants, retail and services depend on auto workers. Without them, local businesses will struggle.
- Public Services Will Be Impacted. Fewer jobs = lower tax revenue = cuts to schools, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Why Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Won’t Save Windsor
Some might think a new federal government will step in. But here’s the reality:
- Poilievre’s focus isn’t on auto…he’s backing oil, gas, and resources.
- Unlike Trudeau, he won’t hand out corporate subsidies.
- Ontario Premier Doug Ford is unlikely to intervene, having already pivoted Ontario’s focus away from auto.
Simply put: If Windsor was hoping for a bailout, it’s not coming.
Windsor Needs a New Plan, Fast
This isn’t speculation…it’s already happening.
- Stellantis will likely shift production to the U.S.
- The supplier base will follow.
- Job losses will ripple through Windsor’s economy.
If Windsor doesn’t start preparing for life after auto manufacturing, it risks becoming the next Oshawa, or make Flint, Michigan look like Disneyland.
The time to act is now.
Bob Manor is Co-Founder of Auto Auction Review and Founder of Can-Am Dealer Services. His website is BobManor.com
